{
  "baseline_date": "2026-09-15",
  "stages": [
    {
      "n": 0,
      "name": "Boom intact",
      "rule": "No reds; at most 2 yellows; none in B or C"
    },
    {
      "n": 0.5,
      "name": "Stress building",
      "rule": "No reds but 3+ yellows, or any yellow in B or C"
    },
    {
      "n": 1,
      "name": "Price break",
      "rule": "Any red in Pillar A",
      "dotcom": "Mar 10 - Apr 14, 2000: Nasdaq -25% in five weeks"
    },
    {
      "n": 2,
      "name": "Funding window closes",
      "rule": "Red in D2, E4 or G1",
      "dotcom": "Apr - Jun 2000: IPO calendar dries up, rounds pulled"
    },
    {
      "n": 3,
      "name": "Revenue misses",
      "rule": "Red in D1, D3, B3, G2, G3 or G4",
      "dotcom": "Q3 - Q4 2000: orders slow, 'visibility' language"
    },
    {
      "n": 4,
      "name": "Capex cliff",
      "rule": "Red in B1 or B2. This is when 'the bubble is popping' becomes the right headline",
      "dotcom": "Jan - Apr 2001: telecom capex cut 20-40%; Cisco $2.2B write-down"
    },
    {
      "n": 5,
      "name": "Credit event",
      "rule": "Red in C1, C4 or C5",
      "dotcom": "2001 - 2002: debt-funded builders default"
    }
  ],
  "amplifier": {
    "rule": "Pillar F never changes the stage. LOW = 0 red and at most 1 yellow; MEDIUM = 0 red and 2+ yellow, or exactly 1 red; HIGH = 2+ red. HIGH shortens the watch horizon and flags C1, C4, C5, D2 as at elevated risk."
  },
  "pillars": [
    {
      "id": "A",
      "name": "Price and market structure",
      "role": "Earliest and noisiest. Detects stage 1.",
      "signals": [
        {
          "id": "A1",
          "name": "Nvidia drawdown from 52-week high",
          "g": "< 15%",
          "y": "15-25%",
          "r": "> 25%"
        },
        {
          "id": "A2",
          "name": "Semiconductor index (SOX) drawdown",
          "g": "< 10%",
          "y": "10-20%",
          "r": "> 20%"
        },
        {
          "id": "A3",
          "name": "Nasdaq-100 drawdown",
          "g": "< 10%",
          "y": "10-20%",
          "r": "> 20%"
        },
        {
          "id": "A4",
          "name": "Rotation: AI leaders vs equal-weight S&P, 20 days",
          "g": "Leaders ahead",
          "y": "Lag 5-10 pts",
          "r": "Lag > 10 pts while RSP flat or up"
        },
        {
          "id": "A5",
          "name": "VIX",
          "g": "< 20",
          "y": "20-30",
          "r": "> 30"
        },
        {
          "id": "A6",
          "name": "Single-day rout",
          "g": "None",
          "y": "NVDA or SOX -5% in a day",
          "r": "NVDA -10% or SOX -8% in a day, or two -5% days in a week"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "B",
      "name": "Capex and guidance",
      "role": "The true confirmation of a pop. Detects stages 3 and 4.",
      "signals": [
        {
          "id": "B1",
          "name": "Hyperscaler capex guidance",
          "g": "Raised or maintained",
          "y": "One trims or uses 'digestion' language",
          "r": "Two or more cut 2027 guidance, or any announces a pause"
        },
        {
          "id": "B2",
          "name": "Data-center pauses and lease cancellations",
          "g": "None credible",
          "y": "Analyst reports",
          "r": "Company-confirmed pause at a hyperscaler, Stargate, xAI or top neocloud"
        },
        {
          "id": "B3",
          "name": "Nvidia results vs consensus",
          "g": "Beat and raise",
          "y": "In line or sharp deceleration",
          "r": "Miss, guide below, or sequential data-center decline"
        },
        {
          "id": "B4",
          "name": "Supply chain: TSMC revenue, memory prices, ODM orders",
          "g": "Growing, prices firm",
          "y": "TSMC growth halves or memory flat",
          "r": "TSMC YoY negative, memory falling, ODM cuts"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "C",
      "name": "Financing and credit",
      "role": "The systemic signals. Detects stage 5.",
      "signals": [
        {
          "id": "C1",
          "name": "Oracle 5-year CDS (absolute bands)",
          "g": "< 150 bp",
          "y": "150-250 bp",
          "r": "> 250 bp"
        },
        {
          "id": "C2",
          "name": "High-yield tech spread over 10-year",
          "g": "< 3.5%",
          "y": "3.5-5.0%",
          "r": "> 5.0%"
        },
        {
          "id": "C3",
          "name": "US high-yield OAS",
          "g": "< 350 bp",
          "y": "350-500 bp",
          "r": "> 500 bp"
        },
        {
          "id": "C4",
          "name": "AI debt deal reception",
          "g": "Oversubscribed",
          "y": "Repriced wider, downsized or delayed",
          "r": "Pulled deal, covenant breach, downgrade to junk, or a fund gating redemptions"
        },
        {
          "id": "C5",
          "name": "Neocloud health (CRWV, NBIS, IREN, APLD)",
          "g": "Stable",
          "y": "CRWV -30% from high or bonds < 90",
          "r": "Bonds < 80, going-concern language, or a peer default"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "D",
      "name": "Demand and revenue validation",
      "role": "Detects stages 2 and 3.",
      "signals": [
        {
          "id": "D1",
          "name": "Lab revenue run-rate growth (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI)",
          "g": "Still doubling",
          "y": "Growth rate halves or targets missed",
          "r": "Flat or down, or layoffs at a top lab"
        },
        {
          "id": "D2",
          "name": "Private-market pricing",
          "g": "Rounds oversubscribed",
          "y": "Secondaries 10-20% below, or a round/IPO delayed",
          "r": "Down round at a top-5 lab, secondaries > 25% below, or tender cancelled"
        },
        {
          "id": "D3",
          "name": "H100 rental price, 3-month change",
          "g": "Flat or up",
          "y": "-15% to -30%",
          "r": "< -30% or idle-capacity reports"
        },
        {
          "id": "D4",
          "name": "Enterprise adoption",
          "g": "Seat/usage growth accelerating",
          "y": "Flat growth or negative ROI studies",
          "r": "Disclosed seat declines or major customers cutting AI budgets"
        },
        {
          "id": "D5",
          "name": "AI-startup casualties",
          "g": "Isolated",
          "y": "Several notable shutdowns in a month",
          "r": "A wave, or a secondhand GPU glut"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "E",
      "name": "Sentiment and narrative",
      "role": "Coincident or contrarian. Never a confirmation.",
      "signals": [
        {
          "id": "E1",
          "name": "BofA FMS 'AI bubble' tail-risk share",
          "g": "< 30%",
          "y": "30-45%",
          "r": "> 45% with rising cash"
        },
        {
          "id": "E2",
          "name": "Narrative volume vs 12-month average",
          "g": "< 1.5x",
          "y": "1.5-3x",
          "r": "> 3x or new high"
        },
        {
          "id": "E3",
          "name": "Public composite trackers",
          "g": "Disagreeing",
          "y": "Two of three deteriorating",
          "r": "All three deteriorating, or boomorbubble 2+ red gauges"
        },
        {
          "id": "E4",
          "name": "Insider selling and IPO froth",
          "g": "Normal",
          "y": "Record insider sales or day-one doublings",
          "r": "IPO withdrawals"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "F",
      "name": "Macro transmission",
      "role": "Amplifier only, added Sep 17. Never sets the stage.",
      "signals": [
        {
          "id": "F1",
          "name": "10-year Treasury yield",
          "g": "< 4.5%",
          "y": "4.5-5.25%",
          "r": "> 5.25%"
        },
        {
          "id": "F2",
          "name": "Bond volatility (MOVE)",
          "g": "< 100",
          "y": "100-130",
          "r": "> 130"
        },
        {
          "id": "F3",
          "name": "Term premium or auction reception",
          "g": "< 0.5%",
          "y": "0.5-1.0%, or one tailed 10y/30y auction",
          "r": "> 1.0%, or two consecutive tails"
        },
        {
          "id": "F4",
          "name": "Inflation regime: breakeven, Brent, CPI",
          "g": "Breakeven < 2.4%, Brent < $80, CPI < 3%",
          "y": "Any of breakeven 2.4-2.7%, Brent $80-100, CPI 3-4%",
          "r": "Breakeven > 2.7%, or Brent > $100 with CPI > 4%"
        },
        {
          "id": "F5",
          "name": "Fed path priced by futures and dots",
          "g": "Cuts priced",
          "y": "1-2 hikes priced",
          "r": "3+ hikes priced, or 2027 median dot > 4.5%"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "G",
      "name": "Circularity",
      "role": "Detects stages 2 and 3 through the funding loop: would reported growth exist without vendor capital? Scored on funding events and filings, not daily prices; excluded from the 24-signal count. N = not yet scorable.",
      "signals": [
        {
          "id": "G1",
          "name": "Insider share of frontier-lab funding (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI)",
          "g": "Latest round majority outside capital, plain terms, step-up",
          "y": "Suppliers 50%+ of a round, structured terms, or a round open 90+ days",
          "r": "Flat/down round with suppliers as majority, a supplier topping up because outsiders declined, or credits converted to equity"
        },
        {
          "id": "G2",
          "name": "Loop cash gap: OpenAI annualized commitments over revenue run-rate, and contract status",
          "g": "< 2x and not rising; no deferrals",
          "y": "2-5x or rising, or credible reports of a site delay or renegotiation",
          "r": "Company-confirmed deferral, downsizing or restructuring of a major commitment, or a receivable problem tied to a lab"
        },
        {
          "id": "G3",
          "name": "Vendor filing fingerprints: Nvidia DSO, concentration and stakes in customers; Oracle current vs total RPO; useful-life changes",
          "g": "DSO steady, concentration flat, stakes < 10% of quarterly revenue, current RPO keeping pace, no life extensions",
          "y": "DSO +10 days, top-two share +5 pts, a new multi-billion stake with a purchase commitment, current RPO lagging, or a useful-life extension",
          "r": "Credit-loss provision or write-down tied to an AI customer, an impaired stake, total RPO falling or a contract modification, or a neocloud GPU impairment"
        },
        {
          "id": "G4",
          "name": "Growth outside the loop: Azure ex-OpenAI, Ramp AI Index",
          "g": "Azure ex-OpenAI within 3 pts of headline and steady; Ramp rising 3 months",
          "y": "OpenAI share of Azure growth rising two quarters or no longer disclosed; Ramp flat 3 months",
          "r": "Azure ex-OpenAI down 5+ pts while headline holds; Ramp falling 3 months; a lab named as largest growth source while guidance is cut"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "source_tiers": [
    {
      "tier": "T1",
      "name": "Primary, no narrative incentive",
      "can": "Change a color alone",
      "examples": "SEC filings, company IR for own numbers, Fed, FRED, BLS, Treasury, rating agencies, exchange prices, Polymarket, BofA FMS"
    },
    {
      "tier": "T2",
      "name": "Wire and major financial press",
      "can": "Change a color if dated within 7 days",
      "examples": "Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, AP, CNBC, Nikkei, Japan Times"
    },
    {
      "tier": "T3",
      "name": "Specialists, inside their domain",
      "can": "Change a color in their domain only",
      "examples": "SemiAnalysis, TrendForce, The Information, DCD, GlobalCapital, ASR, SFA, TechCrunch, Axios, Epoch AI, FactSet Insight, GPU price indices"
    },
    {
      "tier": "T4",
      "name": "Aggregators and secondary",
      "can": "Leads only; cannot change a color",
      "examples": "Motley Fool, 24/7 Wall St, Benzinga, GuruFocus, Seeking Alpha news, TipRanks, MarketBeat, Investing.com, crypto news, MT Newswires Market Chatter, Substacks, X"
    },
    {
      "tier": "T5",
      "name": "Interested parties",
      "can": "Opinion only, with an incentive tag",
      "examples": "Companies on themselves, CEOs, short sellers, underwriter-strategists, vendor blogs, subscription trackers, committed bull or bear publishers"
    }
  ],
  "calendar": [
    {
      "when": "Week of Nov 9 / mid-Nov",
      "what": "Anthropic IPO: formal marketing targeted to start the week of Nov 9, Nasdaq listing targeted as soon as mid-November at up to $2T (slipped from the original October target)."
    },
    {
      "when": "Late Oct",
      "what": "Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Q3 earnings: first 2027 capex guidance. Two or more guiding flat or down turns B1 red and the stage to 4. Microsoft's call also gives OpenAI's contribution to Azure growth (G4) and any server useful-life change (G3)."
    },
    {
      "when": "Oct 27-28",
      "what": "FOMC. Dots imply one more hike; BofA expects two."
    },
    {
      "when": "Late Nov",
      "what": "Nvidia Q3 FY27. Guide below consensus or sequential data-center decline turns B3 red. Nvidia's 10-Q gives DSO, customer concentration and stakes in customers (G3)."
    },
    {
      "when": "Mid-Dec",
      "what": "Oracle Q2 FY27: current vs total RPO and free cash flow (G3). Total RPO falling or a contract modification with its largest customer turns G3 red."
    }
  ],
  "changelog": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-15",
      "t": "Framework created; baseline set at Stage 1 with 1 red and 8 yellows."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "t": "C1 moved from baseline-relative to absolute bands after an unverified CDS print would have scored green."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "t": "Five-tier source register with incentive tags added; T4/T5-only figures cannot change a color."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "t": "Pillar F macro transmission added as an amplifier (10y level, MOVE, term premium, inflation regime, Fed path)."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "t": "Dashboard moved to GitHub Pages; the daily routine now appends a row to data/runs.json each weekday."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-17",
      "t": "Correction: pillars A-E hold 24 signals, not 20; green counts restated (baseline 1 red, 8 yellow, 15 green). Total signals 29 with pillar F."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-21",
      "t": "SOX drawdown fell to 18.5% (A2: red to yellow) and the 20-day rotation flipped to leaders-ahead (A4: yellow to green); Pillar A now holds zero reds for the first time since the Sep 15 baseline. Stage revised from 1 (price break) to 0+ (stress building)."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "t": "SoftBank's $11.1bn OpenAI-funding bond priced with ~3x oversubscription (C4: yellow to green), the first Pillar C signal to turn green since the baseline, even as its coupons are SoftBank's highest-ever on dollar debt. Same day, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.11-5.13%, highest since 2007, keeping the macro amplifier's own signals (F1, F2) close to their thresholds."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "t": "Pillar G (circularity) added with four signals: insider share of lab funding (G1), loop cash gap (G2), vendor filing fingerprints (G3), growth outside the loop (G4). Scored on funding events and filings rather than daily prices; excluded from the 24-signal count so history stays comparable; reported as a Circularity level (LOW / HIGH / BREAKING) beside the macro amplifier. G1 red joins the Stage 2 rule; G2-G4 red join the Stage 3 rule. Provisional baseline G1 Y, G2 Y, G3 N, G4 N (HIGH)."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-25",
      "t": "Pillar G's provisional baseline confirmed with dated sources on the routine's first scoring run: G1 Y (OpenAI's $1.2-1.5T round still in talks, unclosed), G2 Y (~$1.4T commitments vs run-rate), G3 N and G4 N (awaiting Nvidia/Oracle 10-Qs and Microsoft's earnings call). Circularity HIGH."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-01",
      "t": "Two Sep 30 / Early Oct calendar items resolved and removed: Micron's fiscal Q4 (Sep 30) showed no softening in DRAM commentary -- record revenue and HBM growth, B4 stays green, outcome logged as an event. SoftBank's new notes' first-week secondary price (96.75 bid, per Reuters-sourced reporting dated Sep 24) came in below the 98 threshold before the official FINRA TRACE window even opened, flipping C4 from green to yellow; outcome logged as an event rather than left pending."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-06",
      "t": "Calendar refreshed: added the Oct 7-8 Treasury auctions (F3 watch) and TSMC's Oct 15 earnings call; the 'Mid-Oct Anthropic IPO marketing' item is replaced with a confirmed slip to the week of Nov 9 / mid-November at up to $2T. No signal changed color this run -- the same 8 yellows held for a second straight session."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-07",
      "t": "SOX's drawdown narrowed below 10% (A2: yellow to green), putting Pillar A at zero reds and zero yellows for the first time since the Sep 15 baseline. Offsetting this, narrative volume (E2) flipped green to yellow after Google News RSS's 7-day 'AI bubble' query hit its 100-item cap in roughly 3 days instead of 7, while GDELT's volume comparator stayed rate-limited (429). Total yellow count unchanged at 8; Stage holds at 0+ (stress building)."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-08",
      "t": "SOX's drawdown widened back above 10% (A2: green to yellow) one session after its first sub-10% reading since baseline; narrative volume normalized back to roughly the baseline pace (E2: yellow to green) after Google News RSS's 7-day cap took the full week to fill instead of ~3 days. Net yellow count unchanged at 8. TSMC's September revenue (+54.6% YoY, record) resolved the '~Oct 10' calendar item early with no softening; the Oct 7 10-year Treasury auction cleared strongly with no tail, resolving half of the 'Oct 7-8 auctions' item (30-year still pending Oct 8)."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-09",
      "t": "The Oct 8 30-year Treasury reopening cleared at 5.618% with in-line demand and no tail, resolving the 'Oct 8' calendar item (removed). Separately, the 10-year yield closed back below 5.25% (5.231%, Oct 8), flipping F1 from red to yellow and cutting the macro amplifier from HIGH to MEDIUM for the first time since the amplifier was added Sep 17 -- even as a broad AI-complex selloff hit equities the same day (SOX -3.4%, Oracle -5.5%, CoreWeave -7.8%). Pillars A-E unchanged: same 8 yellows, 0 reds, Stage holds at 0+."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-12",
      "t": "First run after the weekend, reflecting Friday Oct 9's close. Pillars A-E fully unchanged for a second straight session (8 yellows, 0 reds, Stage holds at 0+). Within Pillar F, the MOVE bond-volatility index closed back under 100 for the first time in several weeks (98.47, Oct 9), flipping F2 from yellow to green; the amplifier still holds at MEDIUM because the term-premium series (F3) remains stuck at a 10-day-stale Oct 2 reading. No calendar items passed this run."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-14",
      "t": "Pillars A-E held flat for a fourth straight session (8 yellows, 0 reds). Within Pillar F, MOVE (bond volatility) closed back above 100 for the first time in weeks (101.09, Oct 13), flipping F2 from green to yellow; the amplifier stays MEDIUM because F3 (term premium) remains the lone Pillar F red, now on a fresher Oct 9 reading (1.0729%) after FRED resumed publishing. CXMT memory-competition fallout stayed contained to memory-adjacent names (Micron -3.62%, CoreWeave -3.05%) while NVDA, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle and Meta rebounded the same session. Unverified social-media claims of a fresh ~261bp Oracle CDS record (Oct 8) could not be corroborated by any T1-T3 source and did not change C1."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-15",
      "t": "SOX closed Oct 14 at 20.16% below its June 22 52-week high, crossing the >20% red threshold for the first time since the Sep 15 baseline: A2 flips yellow to red and the Stage moves from 0+ to 1 (price break). The move came amid a broad AI-complex selloff (Oracle -8.83%, CoreWeave -15.46%, Nvidia -3.16%, AMD -5.73%, Micron -4.10%) following a hotter-than-expected September CPI print (3.7% headline, up from 3.4%). Separately, this tracker corrects D1 from green to yellow: an Oct 8 FT/Reuters report that OpenAI's September run-rate is nearer $50bn -- about $20bn (29%) below the ~$70bn figure this brief had carried since September -- was missed for a week of runs and is being caught up now. F2 (MOVE) eased back to green (99.06, Oct 14). Net Pillar A-E count: 1 red, 8 yellow, 15 green -- numerically identical to the Sep 15 baseline, though the composition of yellows has shifted (demand-validation concerns now present; price-rotation concerns absent). TSMC's Oct 15 Q3 results beat and raised (revenue +50.9% YoY, Q4 guide $52.3-54.3bn), resolving the 'Oct 15 TSMC earnings' calendar item with no AI-demand softening. FRED was unreachable all run (HY OAS, term premium, breakeven carried stale)."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "t": "First Stage 5 (credit event) trigger of the tracker's life: CoreWeave's 9.625% senior unsecured notes due 2032 traded below 80 cents on the dollar on Oct 14 (Bloomberg, citing TRACE pricing data; yield >15%) and continued trading in the high-$70s to low-$80s through Oct 15 (Reuters/Tradeweb via CNBC), crossing C5's 'bonds <80' red threshold for the first time -- even as CRWV equity itself recovered +5.94% on Oct 15. Oracle fell 8.83% on Oct 14 as the bond scare spread through the neocloud/hyperscaler-supplier complex; SoftBank fell a further 9.33% on Oct 15 (after -8.50% Oct 13), extending its decline to -43.8% from its June high. SOX deepened to -20.86% below its high (A2 stays red). Separately, F2 (MOVE) flipped back yellow (102.49, Oct 15) one session after going green, and the Mid-Oct BofA fund manager survey (released Oct 13, fielded Oct 2-8) resolved the calendar item: 'AI bubble' tail risk eased to 23% of respondents (from 28% in September, now third behind bond yields at 31% and a second inflation wave at 20%), even as 11% named a hyperscaler/AI credit event as the likeliest trigger -- a risk that began showing up in CoreWeave's bond market the same week the survey was fielded. Stage is now reported as 5 (credit event), the most advanced stage yet triggered, though the underlying bond print is fresh, narrow (within a few cents of the threshold) and could reverse quickly; Pillar A's Stage-1 price break (A2) persists concurrently. Pillar G stays HIGH (G1, G2 yellow; G3, G4 not yet scorable)."
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-10-16",
      "t": "Trackers strip restored on the dashboard: aibubble.watch, aibubblemonitor.com, Exponential View (boomorbubble.ai) and Polymarket readings are now recorded in every run row (trackers object) and were back-filled since Sep 15 from the recorded E3 readings, the briefs and aibubblemonitor.com's own history API. boomorbubble.ai, Polymarket and aibubblemonitor.com are read via JSON endpoints instead of search snippets."
    }
  ],
  "circularity": {
    "rule": "Pillar G is scored on funding events and filings, not daily prices, and is excluded from the 24-signal count. LOW = 0 red and at most 1 yellow (N not counted); HIGH = 0 red and 2+ yellow; BREAKING = any red. A G1 red joins the Stage 2 rule; a G2, G3 or G4 red joins the Stage 3 rule. Confirmed Sep 25, 2026 with dated sources: G1 Y, G2 Y, G3 N, G4 N, level HIGH."
  }
}