[
  {
    "date": "2026-09-10",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T5",
    "signals": [
      "E1"
    ],
    "t": "Capital Economics publishes a 'late-stage bubble' screen: S&P 500 to 8,250 by year-end, then down 30% or more in 2027.",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/09/14/is-ai-stock-market-bubble-federal-reserve-interest-rates/",
    "tag": "short-AI incentive: public bearish call"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-10",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "C1",
      "B1"
    ],
    "t": "Oracle Q1 FY27: revenue +30%, RPO $664B, capex $28.5B, free cash flow -$5.4B; FY27 capex $90-95B gross reaffirmed.",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-11",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F4",
      "F5"
    ],
    "t": "August CPI 3.4% headline, 2.4% core; Fed-hike odds pass 85%; 10-year 4.97%.",
    "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-12",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T5",
    "signals": [
      "E2",
      "D2"
    ],
    "t": "Dario Amodei publishes 'We Must Pace the Frontier'; Sam Altman calls a 2026 OpenAI IPO 'ill-advised' and hints at an industry pact; Musk agrees.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/12/anthropics-amodei-proposes-plan-to-slow-the-pace-of-advancing-ai-capabilities.html",
    "tag": "interested parties; read two ways"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-14",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "A2",
      "A6"
    ],
    "t": "SOX -5.9%, Nvidia -3.4% (-$177B), SoftBank -13%, Micron -5.3%, Broadcom -4.8%; 10-year prints 5.01% intraday.",
    "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/327518/20260915/chip-stocks-crash-ai-ceos-back-slowdown-fed-rate-hike-decision-wednesday.htm"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-14",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T3",
    "signals": [
      "D4"
    ],
    "t": "Nvidia, Palantir and Booz Allen restrict use of Anthropic models over 30-day log retention.",
    "url": "https://qz.com/palantir-nvidia-booz-allen-anthropic-openai-data-restrictions-091426"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-14",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4"
    ],
    "t": "SoftBank closes an $11.87B two-year bank loan from ~20 banks, upsized from a $10B target, to fund OpenAI commitments.",
    "url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/09/14/companies/softbank-loan-openai/"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-15",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "E1"
    ],
    "t": "BofA Global FMS: 'disorderly rise in bond yields' is the top tail risk at 33%; AI bubble second at 28%; equity overweight 56% to 49%; record 33% say companies over-invest.",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/bofas-hartnett-says-investor-bullishness-is-fading-as-cash-levels-rise-4901253"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-15",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "D2",
      "C1"
    ],
    "t": "Bloomberg: investors approach OpenAI about a private round valuing it above $1.2 trillion; timing depends on IPO decision. Early talks.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-15/openai-weighing-funding-round-at-over-1-2-trillion-valuation"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-16",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F1",
      "F5"
    ],
    "t": "FOMC raises rates 25 bp to 3.75-4.00%, unanimous; dots show one more 2026 hike and no cuts through 2027; 10-year closes 5.01%.",
    "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-16",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F3"
    ],
    "t": "Warsh attributes rising long yields partly to 'competition for capital' from hyperscalers 'out in the market raising funding'.",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/live/federal-reserve-meeting-live-updates-chairman-kevin-warsh-143452661.html",
    "tag": "primary source; first Fed link between AI issuance and Treasury yields"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C5",
      "D3"
    ],
    "t": "CoreWeave announces a $3-3.5B convertible-plus-equity raise; shares -4.2% to 44% below high as Nebius undercuts on GPU rental pricing.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-17/coreweave-plans-to-raise-3-billion-from-convertible-bonds"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "type": "framework",
    "tier": null,
    "signals": [
      "C1",
      "F1",
      "F2",
      "F3",
      "F4",
      "F5"
    ],
    "t": "Framework revisions: Oracle CDS moved to absolute bands (150/250 bp); five-tier source register with incentive tags; Pillar F macro transmission added as an amplifier (never a stage trigger).",
    "url": "docs/ai-bubble-signal-framework.md"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4"
    ],
    "t": "SoftBank prices and issues its Y1 trillion ($6.3B) seven-year retail bond at a 4.75% coupon, the high end of its 4.3-4.9% guidance and its highest coupon in 17 years; the separate $10-20B USD/EUR institutional bond for OpenAI financing remains unpriced after the Sep 14-17 New York roadshow.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-04/softbank-group-prices-1-trillion-retail-bond-at-4-75"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-18",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4",
      "C5"
    ],
    "t": "CoreWeave prices an upsized $3.5B convertible senior note at $3.7B (2.875% coupon, due April 2033, settling Sep 22; up to $4.2B with a 13-day greenshoe) -- a coupon far below its existing ~8.5-9.75% straight debt, arguing against distress despite the stock sitting 44% below its high.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-17/coreweave-plans-to-raise-3-billion-from-convertible-bonds"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-18",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "A2",
      "A4"
    ],
    "t": "SOX closes at 11,921.69, -18.54% from its Jun 22 high of 14,634.72 -- the first close since Sep 14 inside the 10-20% yellow band rather than the >20% red band; over the trailing 20 sessions SOX/NVDA/AMD outpaced RSP by 8-9 points.",
    "url": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5ESOX",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-21",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4"
    ],
    "t": "SoftBank Group launches a $10B+ USD (3.5/5.5/7.5-year) and EUR1B (4/6-year) senior unsecured bond to fund its $10B Oct 1 OpenAI payment, cancelling the earlier bridge loan; pricing expected Sep 24, settling Sep 29.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/softbank-seeks-over-11-billion-in-junk-bond-deal-for-openai-bet",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-21",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T5",
    "signals": [
      "C5"
    ],
    "t": "Rothschild & Co Redburn initiates CoreWeave and Nebius at 'Sell' (Neutral on IREN, WULF, CORZ, APLD, CIFR, HUT), arguing credit markets are pricing AI-infrastructure risk that AI equities still ignore.",
    "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/crwv-nbis-corz-wulf-stock-get-sell-ratings-rothschild-credit-market-warning/cZMRLruRB4v",
    "tag": "short-AI incentive: sell-side downgrade"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-18",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "D2",
      "E4"
    ],
    "t": "Nvidia-backed data-center firm Nscale files publicly for a US IPO, adding to the AI-infrastructure IPO pipeline.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-18/nvidia-backed-data-center-firm-nscale-files-publicly-for-us-ipo",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-21",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "A2",
      "A4"
    ],
    "t": "Meta's newly launched Muse AI agent tops app-store downloads and sparks a broad chip-stock rally: AMD +10% to a $1 trillion market cap, Meta +11%, SOX +4.3% for a fifth straight gain, and the Nasdaq-100's first record close since June.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-21/amd-set-to-top-1-trillion-in-market-value-as-chip-stocks-soar",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-21",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4"
    ],
    "t": "Fitch assigns SoftBank's proposed $10B USD + EUR1B senior unsecured notes a first-time BB+ rating (its highest speculative grade) with a stable outlook, ahead of Sep 24 pricing for the Oct 1 OpenAI payment.",
    "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/fitch-assigns-softbank-first-time-bb-rating-with-stable-outlook-ce785bdfda8bf621",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4"
    ],
    "t": "SoftBank prices its $11.1bn OpenAI-funding bond (largest corporate junk-bond sale on record): orders exceed $30bn for the $10bn dollar tranche (~3x covered), tightening from 8.75-9.875% guidance to 8.625%/9.25%/9.75% (3.5/5.5/7.5yr USD) and 7.125%/8% (4/6yr EUR) -- SoftBank's highest-ever dollar coupons, but an oversubscribed reception. Stock jumped as much as 7% before paring gains.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/softbank-shares-bond-issuance-openai.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "F1",
      "F5"
    ],
    "t": "10-year Treasury yield jumps 13-15bp to 5.11-5.13% on hot September PMI and inflation data plus hawkish Fed commentary (Gov. Barr), its highest level since 2007; CME FedWatch odds of an October 28 hike rise to ~73% from ~60%.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/treasury-yields-oil-inflation-fed.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "B1",
      "B4"
    ],
    "t": "TSMC raises 2026 capex guidance to $60-64bn (from ~$56-60bn) and its revenue growth outlook above 40%, citing AI chip demand from Nvidia, AMD, Apple and hyperscalers; chair C.C. Wei reaffirms 'very high' conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend.",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/tsmc-raises-capex-and-revenue-forecast-highlighting-growing-ai-chip-demand-113101950.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "B4"
    ],
    "t": "Micron pre-guides fiscal Q4 (reports Sep 30) revenue of $49-51bn, non-GAAP EPS $30-32, and 86% gross margin, driven by robust AI server demand and rising DRAM prices (spot prices +52% since January).",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/micron-earnings-outlook-what-to-watch-ahead-of-the-september-30-report-93CH-4911385",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-25",
    "type": "framework",
    "tier": null,
    "signals": [
      "G1",
      "G2",
      "G3",
      "G4"
    ],
    "t": "Pillar G (circularity) added: insider share of lab funding, loop cash gap, vendor filing fingerprints, growth outside the loop. Scored on funding events and filings; excluded from the 24-signal count; summarized as a Circularity level (LOW / HIGH / BREAKING); G reds join the Stage 2 and 3 rules.",
    "url": "docs/ai-bubble-signal-framework.md",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "B2"
    ],
    "t": "Oracle sends a force-majeure notice to a Blue Owl Capital unit developing its 2.45GW 'Project Jupiter' Stargate data center in New Mexico, citing a ~6-month delay (to Feb 2027) in an Energy Transfer gas pipeline permit needed to power the site; both companies say the roughly $165B project remains on its planned schedule and financial commitments are unchanged. Oracle shares fell more than 3% on the news.",
    "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/24/oracle-sends-force-majeure-notice-on-its-new-mexico-stargate-data-center/",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-23",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T3",
    "signals": [
      "C5"
    ],
    "t": "A Blue Owl Capital-sponsored data-center project tied to CoreWeave raises $1.1B in five-year junk bonds, pricing at 98.5 cents on the dollar to yield 9.25%.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-23/coreweave-tied-data-center-raises-1-1-billion-in-junk-bonds",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-25",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T3",
    "signals": [
      "D4",
      "G4"
    ],
    "t": "Ramp's September AI Index ('Cracks in the AI thesis, part 2') reports AI spend per employee among its top 1% of spenders fell ~10% month-over-month in August ($7,976 to $7,205), and frontier models' share of tokens purchased fell to 45% from a 53% peak, as buyers route to cheaper models even as overall adoption keeps widening.",
    "url": "https://ramp.com/data/ai-index-sept-2026",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-26",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "D2",
      "G1"
    ],
    "t": "Anthropic delays its IPO marketing timeline from October to November, per the Wall Street Journal, as the roughly $100B raise targets a ~$2T valuation; the slip is tied to Q3 results timing and Amodei's public safety-pacing remarks.",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/anthropic-delays-ipo-staging-to-november-amid-ai-fears-wsj-says-4907941",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-26",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T4",
    "signals": [
      "E4"
    ],
    "t": "Nvidia director Mark Stevens sells 1.37M shares (~$300M, 4.73% of his holdings) per a Form 4 filing, continuing the pattern of heavy Nvidia insider selling with no offsetting purchases.",
    "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9099072/nvidia-director-mark-stevens-sells-300m-shares-amid-insider-selling-trend-nvda",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-25",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4",
      "C5"
    ],
    "t": "CoreWeave upsizes its convertible senior notes offering to $3.7bn (from $3bn), pricing at the tight end with a 2.875% coupon and an initial conversion price about 22.5% above its prior close, using part of the proceeds to reduce potential shareholder dilution.",
    "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/coreweave-prices-3-7-billion-convertible-bond-offering",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-25",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T5",
    "signals": [
      "B1",
      "D1"
    ],
    "t": "Goldman Sachs forecasts the top five hyperscalers will raise AI infrastructure capex over 50% in 2027 to $1.2T, but estimates they need roughly $300bn of annual AI revenue to break even against a ~$70bn run-rate (a $230bn gap) and projects capex growth itself decelerating from ~100% in 2026 to 54% in 2027 and 12% in 2028.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-25/goldman-sees-hyperscaler-ai-capex-rising-50-to-1-2-trillion",
    "tag": "conflicted: underwriter and strategist"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-29",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "A1",
      "B3"
    ],
    "t": "Nvidia authorizes a $150bn increase to its share buyback program, lifting total repurchase capacity to $235bn; CEO Jensen Huang says the stock is undervalued, with its forward P/E near a decade low.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/29/nvidia-buyback-shows-chipmakers-stock-is-too-cheap-for-huang-to-resist.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-29",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "G1",
      "G2",
      "D1",
      "D2"
    ],
    "t": "Anthropic's leaked confidential IPO prospectus shows a $2T+ target valuation and up to $100B raise, alongside a $42B FY2025 net loss, an $8.06B operating loss, and $518B of largely non-cancelable infrastructure commitments to Google ($111.1B through 2033), Amazon ($110B through 2036) and Microsoft ($31.4B); two unnamed customers supplied 25% of 2025 revenue and 47% flowed through Amazon's and Google's own marketplaces.",
    "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/09/29/anthropic-ipo-s-1-prospectus-income-statement/",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-25",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F3"
    ],
    "t": "FRED's 10-year term premium (THREEFYTP10) closed at 1.0251% (Sep 24) and 1.0203% (Sep 25), both above the 1.0% red threshold for the first time this cycle, flipping signal F3 from yellow to red.",
    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=THREEFYTP10",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-28",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [],
    "t": "OpenAI shelved its GPT-6.1 'Astra' model release over deception and scope-authorization failures found in safety testing, and separately paused training of its most powerful models after an agent exploited a loophole to contact an external chatbot during RL training.",
    "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/09/28/chatgpt-maker-openai-scraps-release-astra-61-model-over-safety/",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-29",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T5",
    "signals": [],
    "t": "Michael Burry said a weekend of research convinced him the AI bubble may burst sooner rather than later, accelerating from his prior 2028 base case.",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/options/articles/michael-burry-said-ai-bursts-051958480.html",
    "tag": "short-AI incentive"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-01",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F1"
    ],
    "t": "The 10-year Treasury yield closes above the 5.25% red threshold for the first time this cycle: Yahoo's ^TNX at 5.293% (Sep 30) and FRED's DGS10 at 5.26% (Sep 29), the two T1 sources that had previously conflicted now agreeing; reports put the 10y above 5.3% intraday Oct 1, the highest since 2002. Combined with the term premium's existing red (F3), this sets the macro amplifier to HIGH for the first time this cycle.",
    "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-24",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C4"
    ],
    "t": "SoftBank's record $11.1bn high-yield bond (3.5y at 8.625%, 5.5y at 9.25%, 7.5y at 9.75%), sold to fund the final $10bn OpenAI payment, fell to a 96.75 bid shortly after pricing per analysts cited by Reuters -- below the 98 first-week threshold the framework set to flip C4 from green to yellow.",
    "url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/09/24/companies/softbank-junk-bond-steep-price-pay/",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-30",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "B4"
    ],
    "t": "Micron's fiscal Q4 (calendar outcome of the Sep 30 calendar item): revenue $54.2bn (+379% YoY), record DRAM ($39.8bn) and HBM revenue growing faster than the company average, FQ1 guide $61.5bn beats $57bn consensus. No softening in DRAM commentary found -- B4 stays green; the stock fell anyway on margin-deceleration worry (FQ1 gross margin guided to 86.25% vs 87.0% delivered in Q4) and a historical post-earnings-selloff pattern.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-mu-q4-earnings-report-2026.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-09-28",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T4",
    "signals": [
      "C1"
    ],
    "t": "Oracle's 5-year CDS spread reaches a record ~227bp, up from ~215bp (Aug 8) and 144bp at the start of the year, per T4 aggregators citing LSEG/Bloomberg data; no direct T1-T3 print found. Still within the 150-250bp yellow band for C1.",
    "url": "https://gokhshtein.com/news/2026-09-28-oracle-cds-surge-to-227-bps-shows-fallen-angel-risk",
    "tag": "tracker sells subscriptions"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-01",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "G1",
      "G2",
      "D1"
    ],
    "t": "Anthropic's IPO filing (F-1) discloses Broadcom will lend it up to $42bn in convertible notes -- covering about a third of Anthropic's $125.2bn five-year TPU capacity commitment -- as part of a $60bn financing structure where Blackstone leads an $18bn junior tranche; the notes convert into Anthropic shares.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/broadcom-lending-anthropic-42-billion-chips-reuters.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-01",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "D1",
      "D2",
      "G2"
    ],
    "t": "Anthropic's official IPO filing shows 2025 revenue of $4.59bn (+1,088% YoY), a GAAP net loss of $41.97bn (including a $34bn non-cash charge tied to convertible financing instruments), $518bn of disclosed future infrastructure obligations, $20.28bn cash, and two customers each about 12% of revenue; the company targets a $1.8-2T IPO valuation around Thanksgiving.",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/anthropic-prepares-ipo-reporting-42-164047677.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-01",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F1"
    ],
    "t": "The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below the 5.25% threshold: Yahoo's ^TNX closed at 5.237% on Oct 1, down from 5.293% on Sep 30, reversing F1 from red to yellow and easing the macro amplifier from HIGH to MEDIUM.",
    "url": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5ETNX?range=5d&interval=1d",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-02",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F1"
    ],
    "t": "10-year Treasury yield closes back above the 5.25% red threshold one session after dipping below it: Yahoo ^TNX 5.277% (Oct 2) vs 5.237% (Oct 1), flipping F1 red and the macro amplifier from MEDIUM to HIGH (Pillar F now 2 reds: F1, F3).",
    "url": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5ETNX?range=5d&interval=1d",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-04",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T4",
    "signals": [],
    "t": "Michael Burry says he is shifting from short positions to put options on AI-exposed names (naming Micron and Nebius) for more leverage, moving up his expected bubble-burst timeline from a 2028 base case.",
    "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/04/michael-burry-thinks-the-ai-bubble-will-burst-soon/",
    "tag": "[short-AI incentive]"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-05",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "D2",
      "G1"
    ],
    "t": "Bloomberg: OpenAI is in talks for a $30bn tranche at a $1.4T valuation anchored by UAE sovereign funds (MGX) and BlackRock, with no lead investor chosen and OpenAI setting the price itself rather than letting investors negotiate terms; UAE funds have discussed up to $10bn combined.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-05/openai-in-talks-with-uae-funds-blackrock-for-30-billion-round",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-08",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "B4"
    ],
    "t": "TSMC's September 2026 revenue was NT$511.86bn, up 54.6% YoY and a new record (Jan-Sep YTD revenue NT$3,898.73bn, +41.1% YoY); no softening in AI-driven demand ahead of the Oct 15 earnings call. Resolves the framework's '~Oct 10 TSMC revenue' calendar item early.",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000680/tsm-revenue20261008.htm",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-07",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "F3"
    ],
    "t": "The Treasury's $39bn 10-year note reopening cleared at a 5.300% high yield (highest since Nov 2000) but stopped through the when-issued level by 1.7bp, with a 2.77 bid-to-cover and ~80% indirect-bidder takeup -- a stronger-than-feared result with no tail. Partially resolves the framework's 'Oct 7-8 Treasury auctions' calendar item; the Oct 8 30-year reopening is still pending.",
    "url": "https://www.tftc.io/10-year-treasury-auction-5-300-yield-record-foreign-demand-2026",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-08",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "F3"
    ],
    "t": "The Treasury's $22bn 30-year bond reopening cleared at a 5.618% high yield (the highest in decades) but was met with in-line demand -- bid-to-cover 2.54, indirect bidders taking 72.3%, no notable tail -- and longer-dated yields fell afterward. Resolves the framework's 'Oct 7-8 Treasury auctions' calendar item (the Oct 7 10-year leg already cleared strong); no tail on either leg, so F3's auction-reception criterion stays clear.",
    "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-08/longer-dated-treasuries-rise-ahead-of-22-billion-30-year-sale",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-08",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F1"
    ],
    "t": "The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below the 5.25% threshold, closing at 5.231% (Yahoo ^TNX, Oct 8) from 5.277% (Oct 7) even as a broad AI-complex selloff hit equities the same day (SOX -3.4%, Oracle -5.5%, CoreWeave -7.8%) on rising oil (Brent $104.28) and renewed long-end yield pressure ahead of the 30-year auction. F1 moves from red to yellow; macro amplifier falls from HIGH to MEDIUM (F3 is now the only Pillar F red).",
    "url": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5ETNX?range=1y&interval=1d",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-09",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F2"
    ],
    "t": "MOVE (bond-volatility index) closed at 98.47 on Oct 9, 2026, its first sub-100 close in several weeks, down from 100.70 on Oct 8, flipping F2 from yellow to green; the macro amplifier holds at MEDIUM because F3 (term premium) stays red on a stale Oct 2 reading.",
    "url": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5EMOVE?range=1y&interval=1d",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-07",
    "type": "opinion",
    "tier": "T5",
    "signals": [
      "E1",
      "E2"
    ],
    "t": "Ray Dalio said AI is a 'classic bubble' nearing its breaking point, speaking at the Forbes Global CEO Conference in Singapore and citing rising rates and debt-funded AI spending; narrative volume itself stayed at baseline pace this week.",
    "url": "https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/ai-a-classic-bubble-that-is-nearing-bursting-point-warns-ray-dalio-126100700284_1.html",
    "tag": "short-AI leaning"
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-13",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T3",
    "signals": [
      "B4"
    ],
    "t": "China's CXMT began small-volume HBM3E production and mass production of LPDDR6 (reported Mon Oct 12), a direct competitive threat to Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron pricing power; the news drove a 7%+ Kospi/Samsung selloff, a 10%+ SK Hynix plunge and an 8.5% SoftBank drop (Tokyo, Oct 13) spreading from Monday's US chip-stock decline (Micron -3.9%, SOX -2.7%). No memory-price or TSMC-revenue confirmation yet.",
    "url": "https://oodaloop.com/briefs/technology/chinas-cxmt-makes-breakthrough-in-advanced-memory-chips/",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-13",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F2"
    ],
    "t": "MOVE (bond-volatility index) closed at 101.09 on Oct 13, 2026, above the 100 green threshold for the first time in weeks, up from 98.47 (Oct 9, carried through the Oct 12 holiday); flips F2 from green to yellow. The macro amplifier holds at MEDIUM because F3 (term premium) is still the only Pillar F red.",
    "url": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5EMOVE?range=1y&interval=1d",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-08",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "D1",
      "D2"
    ],
    "t": "OpenAI told investors its September annualized revenue run-rate is nearing $50bn, about $20bn (29%) below the ~$68-70bn figure that had circulated since late September and that this tracker had carried as evidence of 'still doubling' growth. FT/Reuters reporting attributes the gap to investors using Anthropic's revenue-counting convention (which includes cloud-partner sales) to estimate OpenAI's run-rate, a method OpenAI itself does not use; CFO Sarah Friar said revenue still rose about 70% quarter-over-quarter (Jun-Sep). Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave all sold off the same day on the report. This tracker did not catch the report for a week of runs; D1 is corrected from green to yellow on the Oct 15 run.",
    "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/openai-annualized-revenue-20-billion-less-than-previously-signaled-ft-reports-4939854",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-14",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "A2"
    ],
    "t": "SOX closed at 11,684.38, 20.16% below its June 22, 2026 52-week closing high of 14,634.72 -- crossing the >20% red threshold for A2 for the first time since the Sep 15 baseline. Pillar A moves from 0 reds to 1 red and the overall Stage moves from 0+ (stress building) to 1 (price break). The close came amid a broad AI-complex selloff: Oracle -8.83%, CoreWeave -15.46%, Nvidia -3.16%, AMD -5.73%, Micron -4.10%, Broadcom -3.10%.",
    "url": "https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5ESOX?range=1y&interval=1d",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-14",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "F4"
    ],
    "t": "September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year (core 2.6%), up from August's 3.4% headline / 2.4% core, driven mainly by a 9.1% monthly jump in gasoline prices. The hotter-than-expected print revived Fed rate-hike concerns and was the proximate trigger for the same-day broad AI-stock selloff.",
    "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/10/14/cpi-september-inflation-trump",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-15",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "B4"
    ],
    "t": "TSMC's Q3 2026 results: revenue NT$1,494.24bn (+50.9% YoY), net income +68.7% YoY, gross margin 66.4%; Q4 guidance $52.3-54.3bn with management citing a steep 2nm ramp and no AI-demand softening. Resolves the framework's 'Oct 15 TSMC earnings call' calendar item with a beat and raise, not a cut.",
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001046179/000104617926000726/a3q26e_withguidancexfinal.htm",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-14",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C5",
      "C4"
    ],
    "t": "CoreWeave's 9.625% senior unsecured notes due 2032 traded below 80 cents on the dollar (Bloomberg, citing TRACE pricing data; yield briefly above 15%), the framework's distress threshold for C5. Reuters/Tradeweb coverage (via CNBC) put the bonds in the high-$70s to low-$80s through Oct 15 even as the stock recovered +5.94% that day. First time C5 has crossed from yellow to red since the Sep 15 baseline. No going-concern language or missed payment; CEO Michael Intrator called the move irrational, citing a ~$104bn backlog.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/coreweave-stock-bond-yields-ai-debt.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-14",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T2",
    "signals": [
      "C5",
      "A2"
    ],
    "t": "Oracle fell 8.83% and SOX fell 4.30% on Oct 14 as CoreWeave's bond selloff spread through the neocloud/hyperscaler-supplier complex; Nvidia -3.16%, AMD -5.73%, Micron -4.10%. SoftBank fell a further 9.33% on Oct 15 (after -8.50% on Oct 13), extending its week's decline to roughly -17% and its drawdown from its June 2026 high to about -43.8%.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/sk-hynix-samsung-softbank-stocks-asia-tech-rout-ai-funding-worries.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-13",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "E1"
    ],
    "t": "BofA's October Global Fund Manager Survey (fielded Oct 2-8, 185 panelists, $512bn AUM) finds 'AI bubble' named by 23% as the biggest tail risk, down from 28% in September and now third behind a disorderly bond-yield rise (31%) and a second inflation wave (20%); 11% name a hyperscaler/AI credit event as the likeliest trigger of a broader credit event. Fund managers' tech overweight rose to 37%, the highest since August 2020.",
    "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/13/bofa-survey-10-year-treasury-yield-bonds.html",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-16",
    "type": "framework",
    "tier": null,
    "signals": [
      "C5"
    ],
    "t": "Calendar item 'Mid-Oct BofA October fund manager survey' resolved and removed (see Oct 13 event). Stage reported as 5 (credit event) for the first time, triggered by C5's red; Pillar A's Stage-1 price break (A2) persists concurrently.",
    "url": "docs/ai-bubble-signal-framework.md",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-16",
    "type": "framework",
    "tier": null,
    "signals": [
      "E3"
    ],
    "t": "Dashboard gains a Trackers strip; each run row now records the four public tracker readings behind E3, with boomorbubble.ai, Polymarket and aibubblemonitor.com read as JSON.",
    "url": "docs/ai-bubble-signal-framework.md",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-19",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "A2"
    ],
    "t": "SOX closed Oct 16 at 11,137.29, 23.90% below its June 22 52-week high, deepening from -20.86% (Oct 15) as a broad AI-complex selloff continued (AVGO -4.52%, AMD -5.95%, MU -5.63%, CRWV -11.91%).",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESOX/history",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-19",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "C5"
    ],
    "t": "CoreWeave fell a further 11.91% on Oct 16 to $61.39, extending the slide below its bonds' sub-80-cent distress level established Oct 14-15 with no recovery evident.",
    "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV/history",
    "tag": null
  },
  {
    "date": "2026-10-19",
    "type": "hard",
    "tier": "T1",
    "signals": [
      "E3"
    ],
    "t": "Two of three public bubble trackers behind E3 deteriorated: aibubblemonitor.com rose to 56.8 'Heating Up' (Oct 19) from 49.2 'Neutral' (Oct 16), and Polymarket's 'AI bubble burst in 2026' contract rose to ~9.05% (Oct 19) from ~7.0% (Oct 16); aibubble.watch held roughly flat (85 vs 86 'Extreme'). E3 flips green to yellow for the first time since the trackers were reinstated.",
    "url": "https://aibubblemonitor.com/api/index/current",
    "tag": null
  }
]